A decade of decline. . .

In 2015 the floodgates of marriage were opened to nearly all comers in America.  In one fell swoop the Supreme Court flaunted the progress of the cause among the states and insisted upon imposing the law of same sex marriage (and whatever other genders might fall therein) upon all the states.  It was, as some have said, less about the legal grounds for same sex marriage as much as the decision was seeking to offer the marital bliss of the majority to formerly excluded minorities and thereby strengthen marriage over all.  If marriage were so wonderful, who and why would anyone in their right mind exclude it from anyone?  Indeed.

Obergefell cxertainly succeeded in changing the law and establishing a right to gay marriage -- at least according to court edict.  What it has not done is unite America in the cause and, in fact, support for same sex marriage has either plateaued or begun a decline of late.  This is due to the fact that when you support a legal decision with less an argument of law than you do the promotion of a cause, it seldom settles the issue.  Abortion and Roe ought to have taught us such a lesson in this as well.  So instead of charting the success of Obergefell in terms of the numbers of same sex marriages, it would be better to place that number within the total -- have more folks decided to marry since 2015 than before?  Has the promotion of marital joy extended to more and more people?

If that is the measure of the SCOTUS decision, the evidence must be disappointing to Justice Kennedy and his supporters.  Or, perhaps they don't think it matters?  In raw numbers in 2015, 48.3 percent of adult Americans were married -- that from the normally objective records of the U.S. Census. Yet after including 1.2 million same sex couples in that total, by 2023, the percentage of married Americans had actually dropped a couple of percent -- down to 46.4 percent.  That may not seem earth shattering unless you also add in some other statistics.  Forty-five years ago, in 1980, only 5 percent of middle-aged Americans had never married.  In a few years, that will have grown by 5x and some 25 percent will never have been married.  So much for the promotion of marriage to more and more.  Even more bad news.  Those who are actually marrying are entering into wedded bliss later and later in life and inching toward the end of the child-bearing years for women.  An overwhelming 80 percent of women and 66 percent of men born in the tumultuous war years of 1940-1944 found themselves married by age 25 but fifty years later that dropped down to 30 percent of women and 20 percent of men.  Ouch.  So much for extending the blessedness of marriage, Obergefell seems to have helped smolder the spark of love.

Perhaps it was not simply the law but the penchant to redefine marriage away from its traditional and Biblical foundations and turn it into something new and fluid, adaptable and flexible.  In so doing, the compelling nature of marriage (and family) has been dulled and confused.  The population seems to be saying why bother to marriage and family and the law simply allowed more of the shift in the state of marriage and family to exist within legal framework.  All in all, marriage is less about the institution and estate than it is some nebulous idea of individuality preserved within a fragile relationship that is simply no longer strong enough to hold the weight of what it was and not promising enough to build a future around it.  It is one more sad example of what happens when we think we know better than God.  Maybe the depths of marriage's decline will come soon enough and a new age will look one more time at a better reason to be married than what is in it for me.  Or maybe Obergefell will have simply dampened hopes of this for any foreseeable future.  It is a terrible game of wait and see for the gift that insisted it is not good for man or woman to be alone.