The waning influence of Europe. . .

I read a startling statistic that indicated that Pakistan had one million more births than the whole of Europe last year (7M to 6M).  It would seem that the birth rate is not merely a statistic but a sign of the decline of Europe and its influence.  Indeed, it has become dependent upon others to work in its factories, fill the service jobs, and pay into the government the tax money going out to its aging citizens.  No one likes to admit this, of course, but everyone knows this painful truth.  Europe is on crutches or, more appropriately, behind a walker, inching toward its own demise.  It may well be that there are not enough fertile females left in Europe to change this even if they all suddenly desired to become moms.  In any case, the day is looming when the social programs protecting the populace will either fail or be subject to the whims of others who are living in their lands but not European in values as well as ancestry

Even the EU’s largest and most industrialized nation, Germany, is vulnerable to the litany of ailments presently affecting them all.  Europe matters less in the world and Germany also matters less within Europe.  The Germans are victims of the same problems and all their industrial machine cannot produce them out of this problem.  It is related to the decline of marriage, the family, and the lack of children.  For some time now power has been moving away from Berlin and not to other capitals like Paris.  It is moving out of Europe as the population ages and declines and its influence is more ceremonial than real.  This is the real decline of a civilization -- when there is no value to or interest in the foundational structures of any society in marriage, children, and family.  It has taken a while to get here but it takes a longer time to reverse this kind of decline if only because the population has aged itself out of the child bearing years.

Not surprisingly, this same thing is also at work in the US though we are much slower to get there -- at least in part because of the strong birth rate of our population of recent immigrants.  Right now the birth rate of Nigeria is either the same or ahead of the US so the problem is looming for us as well.  Interestingly enough, this has already shown itself in many Christian churches -- the leading edge of this decline revealed among those whose graying membership and birth rate even lower than the rest of America show what will happen to the rest soon enough.  In the LCMS, the thing that is killing is most is not that we are terrible at attracting new people to our confession and church life but that every year shows a significant decline in the number of babies born to our people and presented for baptism.  Our statistical graph is ahead of the nation and the same people who dismiss this as an issue for Europe or the US are laughing themselves to death -- literally -- when it is pointed out for our church body.  Our influence wanes not simply because those outside our church body are not listening but because we do not take its theology serious enough within our own homes and congregations.

In the following table we find summarized the fertility rates of the LCMS compared to other religious groups in America (not necessarily Christian):

Religious Group	Fertility Rate
LCMS	Lower than average
Mormons	Highest among religious groups
Assemblies of God	High fertility
Non-denominational Evangelicals	Moderate fertility
Roman Catholics	Traditionally high

What are the implications of a low fertility rate?

• Decline in Membership: The lower birth rates mean fewer families are raising children within the church, leading to a shrinking membership base.

• Generational Impact: With only 11% of LCMS families currently in the child-raising stage, this is significantly lower than the national average of 20%. This trend suggests that fewer children are being baptized and confirmed, which is the most significant factor in church growth.  It also points out that many of those being raised in the faith, will not stay either due to marginal participation by the family in the life of the church or a break down of catechesis.

• Future Projections: If the current demographic trends continue, the LCMS will certainly face continued challenges in maintaining its membership levels and without a turn around, will probably see a functional decline in the church and its influence in the coming decades.

What we are now seeing in Europe is but a prediction of the future both for the US but in particular for the LCMS unless we work to turn this around now.