Why are we losing them?

In 2007 Lifeway published the results of a fairly wide study that found some 70 percent of young American adults who regularly attended a Protestant church in high school stopped attending upon when hey reached college age. Interestingly, this was mirrored in those who did not attend college as well as those who did enter university.  Ten years later when Lifeway repeated the study (2017), guess what—it found pretty similar results.  Before we quickly blame the colleges and the secular education industry, we would do well to recall that Lyman Stone made the conclusion to his review (Institute of Family Studies) that “most nonreligious children are born into religious households and lose their faith while under the supervision of parents who believe that they are successfully transmitting their religious values.”  Neither study is alone in its findings or its conclusions.

Organization	Study / Source	Year	Key Finding
Lifeway Research	Church Dropout Study	2007	70% of young adults who attended church regularly in high school dropped out for at least one year between ages 18–22.
Lifeway Research	Church Dropout Study (updated)	2019	66% dropout rate—a slight improvement from 70% in 2007. 71% say leaving was not intentional.
Barna Group	You Lost Me	2011	59% of young adults with a Christian background disconnected from church during their 20s.
Barna Group	Faith for Exiles	2019	Dropout rate rose to 64%. Only 10% of young Christians qualify as “resilient disciples.”
Pew Research	Religious Landscape Study	2023–24	29% of U.S. adults are religiously unaffiliated (“nones”)—up from 16% in 2007.
Pew Research	Why Americans Leave Religion	2025	53% of those who left religion did so by age 18.
Gallup	Church Membership Trend	2020	U.S. church membership fell below 50% for the first time ever, to 47%.
NSYR	Longitudinal Study	2002–13	Parents are the single most important influence on long-term religious outcomes. Retention drops to single digits without parental engagement.
Fuller Youth Institute	Sticky Faith	2006–10	Intergenerational worship participation is the strongest predictor of sustained faith into college.
PRRI	Census of American Religion	2020–24	36–44% of adults under 30 are religiously unaffiliated. Young women now leaving faster than young men.

The data points to a dropout rate somewhere between 59% and 70%, depending on how you define “dropout” and depending upon the time period being surveyed.  Of course, many of those who "drop out" will eventually return but even so, the situation is serious.  What is concerning is this.  The surveys found that: 71% of those who left said it was not an intentional decision—it just happened. They drifted away.  They stopped attending for a while and it became a habit. They did not get angry and storm out.  They did not rebel against church teaching.  They just woke up one day and had lost the habit of attending Church.  Some of them worked to regain the habit.  Many did not.  It is also interesting that many, perhaps even most of those young adults who dropped out of Church were not rejecting the faith outright (though this might come later) but they had lost the habit.

 

While it is true that many eventually return—especially after major life transitions—those life events that would eventually provide an opportunity for them to drop back in are themselves in decline. Survey said that the reasons for returning include feeling that something was missing and having the desire to return (34%), feeling God was calling them back (28%), having children (24%), and getting married (20%). About half of young adults who leave eventually return in some capacity which is good but if having children and marrying are on the decline among those same young adults, that means there are fewer entry points for them along their lives. 

 

The single strongest predictor of long-term religious outcomes: parents.  Duh.  This should not be a surprise.  So the fix does not lie with church programs.  It is not youth group, not summer camp, not a youth pastor or leader, not participation in church leadership, and not worship style that is the biggest factor in the long term religious connection of young adults.  Far and away the most significant variable in all the studies is the home, the faith of the parents, and the practice of the family. Though it is politically incorrect to admit this, the faith and practice of the father in the home has the greatest impact.  The declining presence of the dad in the home is therefore also very concerning.

 

Retaining youth is key to the vitality of the Church.  We may be great at evangelization but if we are a failure at keeping the kids we have, we will decline.  It is inevitable.  So having children and raising them in the faith and in the Church with a strong father example is part of the solution as well as a sign of the problem.  This is not earth shattering but it does reinforce the common wisdom that the strength of the Church is the strength of the home.