Taking Liberty University out of the mix (for what I would call obvious reasons), the whole of the schools covered by the Association of Theological Schools (the accrediting agency) shows that numbers for the total combined enrollment did, indeed, gradually decline year by year from 2016 through 2024.
2016—29,282
2017—28,597
2018—28,597
2019—28,531
2020—28,183* Covid Year
2021—26,828
2022—25,437
2023—23,926
2024—23,812
That represents an 18%+ decline overall. Now, if you did figure in Liberty when it acquired ATS accreditation in 2018, the numbers would be slightly different but typically American seminaries counted by ATS dropped steadily and rather evenly over the years. For Missouri the situation is a little different. Yes, there was some decline but not nearly as pronounced nor as predictable as the ATS numbers reveal.
Average enrollments for Ft. Wayne and St. Louis are rather steady. A decline at Ft. Wayne of 8% and at St. Louis of a little over 15% and for the two together a little more than 12%. This means that we are in a holding pattern more than a crash and burn scenario. Those who wish to reshape how we train our pastors need to pay attention.
2016— 159 209
2017— 157 208
2018— 158 191
2019— 145 191
2020— 152 201
2021— 158 179
2022— 160 179
2023— 161 188
2024— 146 176
We should not be consoled by these numbers nor should we slack in our efforts to recruit men for the pastoral ministry but neither should we presume that this decline is a continuous trajectory that signals a need for radical action. If anything, it should give us a bit of breathing room to be deliberate and careful to make sure that we don't screw things up in an effort to fix something that may not be quite as urgently in need of repair as some presume.
So I am suggesting that we not listen to the chicken littles who are predicting the demise of everything as we know it nor should we be complacent. My radical thought is don't screw this up in the name of progress or urgency. We are seeing good numbers with the Set Apart to Serve (for all church workers). The recruitment task lies largely with pastors and congregations and not with programs or seminaries. We identity and support men for the cause and the seminaries form them with help from a vicarage year and good, solid examples within their home congregations. Is what we are doing perfect? Of course not. But it is not so bad it justifies wholesale change and that is my fear. Those who advocate opening up the doors to a very different way we train and certify graduates are counting on fear ruling the day. Lets make sure that we are not uninformed so that what we do will not have to be undone down the road -- when it may be too late.




