One metric used to be declining cases. The advent of multiple variants and the addition to our vocabulary of delta and omicron and others to come means that it is highly unlikely we will see the cases simply wind down to nothing.
Then the metric was natural immunity. But as we have seen, as robust as that natural immunity might be, it does not prevent infection from variants or even reinfection from the original strain. So it could be that, like the flu, COVID will be something that changes and natural immunity will not protect against those variants.
Another metric was vaccinations. Since vaccination is no longer a one and done scenario but a multiplicity of boosts to the original dosage, it is hard to say what it will mean to be fully vaccinated in six months or a year or three years.
Of course, the ultimate metric is deaths. The problem there is that there no uniform definition of cause of death when it comes to COVID so that it is hard to sort the statistics out to find out the actual death rate of which COVID is the primary cause. There were patients with terminal illness who got COVID were listed as COVID deaths but were they primarily due to COVID?
The goal of these metrics was immunity, at least in the beginning. Now it is not a vaccine to provide immunity but to prevent complications. As we have seen all over the world, vaccination does not itself guarantee that the vaccinated will not get COVID -- only the hope that when you get it or get it again, the symptoms will be milder and hospitalizations less likely. In the meantime, masks may end up being normal -- not because they make you safe but because they tell you the pandemic is still there.
If churches are waiting for the all clear siren sounding the end of the pandemic, they may have long to wait or may never hear it at all. My point is not to argue what the right metric is or where we are in pursuit of that goal but to raise a point. The uncertainty and fear may lesson as people become accustomed to it all but that may not translate into a resurgence of attendance or participation in the life of the church by those who have absented themselves from in person worship. My thought is that those who have not returned will not return. Some of them may have lived more on the fringes of the sacramental life of the congregation but many did not. Some of them will keep up a private and individualized faith at home but many will not. Some will find online offerings to be enough for them but many will not. This may be less of an issue for the evangelical or Protestant congregation but it is a profound concern for a sacramental communion in which the weekly gathering of God's people in His House, around His Word and Table are the definition of what it means to be the Church (Hebrews 10).
I do not believe that we will ever know when it is over -- only when it no longer dominates the news. Some of the metrics of that change are already coming. My health insurer sent me an email in December telling me that no longer will they cover all COVID related costs outside the ordinary deductible and policy limits. After January 1, most treatment costs will be borne by me within the parameters of my policy coverage and subject to the deductible -- like everything else. In other words, COVID may go one but they are doing business as usual. I am not a fan of insurers but perhaps they have made a point. COVID may not go away but will we as the Church do business as usual? I guess we will see. . .
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